000 AXNT20 KNHC 222356 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA SW TO THE SW GULF. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ESTABLISHED AS RIDGING SETTLES IN ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF WATERS THIS EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS GENERALLY S OF 24N W OF 95W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 23/1200UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA SE TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N81W. THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO 07N28W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N28W TO 03N45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 08W-26W...AND FROM 01N-09N BETWEEN 40W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR THE TAMPA BAY REGION SW TO THE SW GULF AND SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N94W. MOST OF THE STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS OCCURRING IN THE SW NORTH ATLC...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE FRONT AND S OF 21N. PORTIONS OF A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO 24N85W WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE GULF BASIN WEST OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A BROAD HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE MID- MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...MUCH OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AND THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL WITH THE STRONGEST AREA OF NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS SW PORTIONS AS MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR EAST OF THE BASIN BY LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE WINDS PREVAILING AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING WITH A BROAD AREA OF DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE INHIBITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. THE ONLY NOTABLE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND AREAS OF GUATEMALA. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COLOMBIA COAST. LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN BY MONDAY MORNING INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO STRONG BREEZE LEVELS...AND MAINTAINING FRESH NE WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ...HISPANIOLA... DRY AIR ALOFT IS PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N74W AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N80W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 29N78W TO 26N81W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 72W-78W. AS NOTED ABOVE...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS GENERATING GALE FORCE CONDITIONS THROUGH 23/1200 UTC. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N39W TO 30N39W THAT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 25N47W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES S-SW TO 18N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...ON EITHER SIDE OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT...RIDGING PREVAILS PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN