000 AXNT20 KNHC 221738 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 30N84W TO 23N90W TO 19N95W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT W OF 95W S OF 24N. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. SEAS UP TO 15 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE GALE AREA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL EMERGE OFF THE FL/GA ATLC COASTS THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING GALE IS FORECAST N OF 29N E OF THE FRONT TO 73W STARTING AT 1800 UTC THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY. SEAS TO 13 FEET ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE GALE AREA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER W AFRICA AND ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 11N16W TO 08N21W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 06N30W TO 04N35W TO 02N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 10W AND 28W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 09N BETWEEN 28W AND 48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FL PENINSULA NEAR 29N82W TO 23N90W TO 18N94W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING W OF THE FRONT OVER A PORTION OF THE SW GULF. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF BASIN. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S FL NEAR 27N81W TO 25N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS ARE SE OF THE TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US AND PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE CARIBBEAN TODAY WITH A BROAD AREA OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE INHIBITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. THE ONLY NOTABLE CONVECTION IS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 11N BETWEEN 79W AND 85W...AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER PANAMA. MAINLY FRESH TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF THE COLOMBIA COAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN. PRE-FRONTAL FORCING WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... DRY AIR IS PREVENTING CONVECTION ACROSS HISPANIOLA TODAY. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SUPPORTS A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE W ATLC WATERS TO THE N OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION. AS OF 1500 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THIS LOW TO 31N78W TO 28N80W TO S FL. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC DOMINATES ATLC E OF 70W TO 52W WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM NEAR 31N40W TO 26N45W TO 21N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT TO 15N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES DOMINATES THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE GA/FL COASTS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP JUST E OF THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 29N AS THE FRONT MOVES SE. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO NEAR 30N70W BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN 200 NM E OF THIS FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO