000 AXNT20 KNHC 220559 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS THE W GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT ON 22/0000 UTC EXTENDS FROM 30N89W TO 21N97W. A GALE IS OVER THE W GULF FROM 23N TO 25N W OF 96W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W GULF NW OF FRONT HAS N WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SEAS UP TO 16 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARNED AREA DURING THAT TIME. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. IN 24 HOURS ON 23/0000 UTC A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 31N75W TO 25N81W. A DEVELOPING GALE IS FORECAST FOR N OF 30N E OF 72W WITH WINDS 30-35 KT AND SEAS TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEREAFTER. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER W AFRICA AND ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES TO 06N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N18W TO 06N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 06W-17W....AND FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 22W-36W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 44W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA AT 30N89W TO S OF TAMPICO MEXICO AT 21N97W. A GALE IS OVER THE W GULF. SEE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE W GULF NW OF FRONT HAS N WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N89W TO 21N94W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE SE GULF AND S FLORIDA REMAINS IN THE WARM AIRMASS AND HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SE GULF AND FLORIDA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...COSTA RICA...AND S NICARAGUA...FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 81W-87W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 60W WITH UPPER SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 60W-75W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. ALSO EXPECT PREFRONTAL CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...NW CARIBBEAN ...AND W CUBA. ...HISPANIOLA... MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N75W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 28N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 26N BETWEEN 76W-81W TO INCLUDE THE N BAHAMAS. A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM 31N39W TO 26N40W TO 20N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1040 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 45N23W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING S TO 20N35W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ENHANCING THE CONVECTION N OF THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING THE STATIONARY FRONT. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 18N18W SUPPORTING CONVECTION LOCALLY OVER W AFRICA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A NEW COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH GALE WINDS. SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA