000 AXNT20 KNHC 212334 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS THE W GULF. THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM 23N98W TO 26N94W TO 29N92W. N WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING NW OF THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP S OF 25N AND W OF THE FRONT STARTING 0000 UTC THIS EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEAS UP TO 15 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARNED AREA DURING THAT TIME. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N18W TO 07N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 22W-34W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERED THE NW GULF EARLIER TODAY AND EXTENDS FROM 23N98W TO 26N94W TO 29N92W AS OF 2100 UTC. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N97W TO 27N95W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDS ACROSS THE W GULF S OF 24N. A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE E GULF SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY E OF 88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 20N96W TO 18N94W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. A GALE WARNING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS THE W PORTION OF THE BASIN. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION PREVAILING E OF IT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. TO THE E...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ITS AXIS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 14N61W TO 10N64W. AT THE SURFACE...SHALLOW CONVECTION IS TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE BASIN BY THE TRADES. THE PRESENCE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH S IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 12N BETWEEN 78W-83W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS S OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 67W- 74W. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE W CARIBBEAN FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY ENHANCING CONVECTION. ...HISPANIOLA... SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED WEAK TRADE WINDS SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DRY AND FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION AS A WEAKENING BOUNDARY FROM 31N75W TO 28N80W. A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC MAINLY W OF 76W. TO THE E...A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED N OF OUR AREA EXTENDS ITS COLD FRONT FROM 31N38W TO 25N41W. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO 18N60W. A SURFACE IS FROM 18N60W TO 12N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT AND TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 46N26W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE STATIONARY FRONT E OF FL WILL DISSIPATE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN BY SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE N OF 30N AND E OF 72W MAINLY TO THE E OF THE COLD FRONT BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH SEAS UP TO 12 FT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA