000 AXNT20 KNHC 211750 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE W GULF TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP S OF 26 TO THE W OF THE COLD FRONT STARTING 0000 UTC THIS EVENING. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THEREAFTER OVER THE SW GULF THROUGH EARLY MORNING MONDAY. SEAS UP TO 16 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARNED AREA DURING THAT TIME. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N17W TO 05N30W TO 08N40W TO 08N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 24W AND 33W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE MAINLY WITHIN 200 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FL TO THE EASTERN GULF NEAR 27N85W. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NW GULF WHICH IS PRODUCING LIFT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF. THE RESULT IS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24 ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM 21N96W TO 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 70 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE TX COAST...AND IS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER TX. NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE NW OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. MAINLY MODERATE SE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. THE COLD FRONT OVER TX WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE ACROSS THE W GULF. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP S OF 26 N BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LIKELY E OF THE COLD FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH THE ONLY NOTABLE SURFACE FEATURE BEING THE E PACIFIC MONSOON ROUGH OVER PANAMA WHICH IS HELPING TO GENERATE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF A LINE FROM 13N84W TO 09N77W. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. CONVECTION WILL BECOME LIKELY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SE OVER THE SE GULF. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN ON MONDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED WEAK TRADE WINDS SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DRY AND FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CONVECTION TO HISPANIOLA ON TUESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N73W TO 28N81W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM NW OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. FARTHER EAST...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N47W...AND IS PART OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N40W TO 25N43W TO 18N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE COLD FRONT TO 12N54W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH N OF 15N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT E OF FL WILL DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTION FROM THE N BAHAMAS N TO 31N W OF 75W. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE US ON SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE N OF 29N TO THE E OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING...AS THE FRONT REACHES FROM 31N75W TO 26N81W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO