000 AXNT20 KNHC 210543 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE E-SE WITH GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS FORECAST FOR 22/0000 UTC FROM 22N-26N W OF 96W WITH SEAS TO 12 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST TO BEYOND 23/0000 UTC. SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N16W TO 07N30W TO 07N40W TO 05N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-12N BETWEEN 28W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 28N80W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 25N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 83W-86W. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 23N97W TO 19N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 92W-95W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT A COLD FRONT OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS THIS EVENING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS NW OF FRONT. SEE ABOVE. ALSO EXPECT THE STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION TO PERSIST HOWEVER OVER THE SE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE REMNANTS OF A SHEARLINE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 15N60W TO 14N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LINE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...COSTA RICA ...AND S NICARAGUA...FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 81W-85W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 60W WITH UPPER SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 60W-75W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND MORE CONVECTION TO FORM S OF CUBA. ...HISPANIOLA... MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N74W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 28N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1002 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N50W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N44W TO 23N46W TO 19N50W TO 16N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER A LARGE AREA E OF FRONT N OF 14N BETWEEN 36W-45W. A 1039 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 38N23W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING S TO 20N30W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N47W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS STRONGLY ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E...WHILE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA