000 AXNT20 KNHC 201147 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... NORTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT...FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 55W AND 57W. EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS TO REACH 18 FEET AS A MAXIMUM. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N53W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 21N53W 18N54W AND 16N59W...TO 14N67W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W. A 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N53W...MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD 10 KNOTS. AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N47W TO 24N50W TO 20N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N47W TO 21N51W TO 18N58W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W 29N42W 25N43W 22N45W 17N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W AND THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... NO TROPICAL WAVES ARE PRESENT AT THIS TIME. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE IVORY COAST NEAR 05N03W TO 04N10W AND 04N13W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N13W TO 04N17W 06N22W 04N31W AND 04N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 33W AND 42W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 04N22W 05N26W 06N31W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 45W EASTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN U.S.A. REACHES THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR 27N83W. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N79W...TO FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...TO 27N86W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR 27N86W...AND IT CONTINUES TO 24N95W AND 18N95W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 33N76W TO A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N78W. THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 29N78W TO 26N84W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 80W...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 27N SOUTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N74W 29N74W 28N79W. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 70W WESTWARD...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 29N95W 27N92W 28N88W 30N86W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...NORTHEASTWARD...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CUBA... BEYOND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. ...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...AREAS OF RAINSHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN MOVING FROM CUBA AND HAITI SOUTHWARD DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS HAVE WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS SHEARING THE CLOUD TOPS IN THOSE AREAS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH...30N53W 20N53W 14N58W 12N64W... INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N73W. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO- SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START NEAR 22N75W AND END NEAR 17N74W AT 48 HOURS. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...IT WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT TIMES...FROM THE NORTH AT TIMES...AND FROM THE NORTHWEST AT OTHER TIMES. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N84W...RIGHT AT THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...NEAR THE EAST CENTRAL COASTAL SECTION. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER SPENT THE LAST FEW DAYS IN THE WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE SAME COASTAL AREA OF NICARAGUA. MIDDLE LEVEL EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N NORTHWARD FROM 76W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...MUCH OF THE COMPARATIVELY-STRONGER PRECIPITATION EITHER HAS MOVED AWAY...AND/OR WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. REMNANT WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 10N IN NORTHERN COSTA RICA TO 13N IN NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA BETWEEN 85W AND 87W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N SOUTHWARD FROM 75W WESTWARD. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N/10N FROM 73W IN COLOMBIA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N SOUTHWARD FROM 75W WESTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.39 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.17 IN CURACAO. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N53W 14N54W 10N55W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 40W AND THE 32N53W 16N59W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N25W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER FROM 08N TO 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 32W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO 25N32W TO 16N39W AND 10N47W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO 25N69W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 17N70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT