000 AXNT20 KNHC 191753 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU NOV 19 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N71W TO 17N72W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W. THE WAVE IS ALSO INFLUENCES BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER PUERTO RICO SW TO 12N78W WITH WATER VAPOR INDICATING VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WEST OF THE AXIS. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 70W-76W...AND MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N10W TO 06N25W TO 04N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 07W-16W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 24W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE NE GULF TO 28N87W WHICH BECOMES STATIONARY SW TO 23N96W TO 20N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 26N E OF THE FRONT...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND IN THE VICINITY OF A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N88W TO 22N93W. OTHERWISE... MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE OBSERVED WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS NOTED EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE BASIN BY FRIDAY WITH E-NE WINDS PREVAILING INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY EARLY SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 17N96W AND EXTENDS INFLUENCE EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AND STABLE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED N OF 15N W OF 72W... HOWEVER A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 13N83W THAT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM 09N-15N BETWEEN 78W-84W. MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OVER PUERTO RICO SW TO 11N80W. FARTHER EAST...ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGHING... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 63W-71W. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS ACROSS THE ISLAND UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A FEW SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO STRONG NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE APPROACH OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS PROVIDING FOR A RELATIVELY DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SW NORTH ATLC W OF 75W. THE DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING PRIMARILY N OF 27N W OF 77W WITHIN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 70W. FARTHER EAST...A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N53W THAT SUPPORTS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOCUSED ON A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N47W AND THE PARENT LOW CENTERED TO THE NW AS A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 33N52W. THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 32N43W TO THE 1010 MB LOW TO 22N60W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT COLD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN 43W-52W. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1008 MB LOW TO 30N53W TO 29N58W TO BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. THE COMPLEX LOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY AND BEGIN TO MOVE N-NE BY LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SOUTH OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...AN AREA OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 07N55W TO 14N51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 06N-15N BETWEEN 40W- 53W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 39N15W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH S-SW TO 15N45W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN