000 AXNT20 KNHC 191159 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 54W/55W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD AT 19/0000 UTC HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 51W/52 FROM 08N TO 14N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 43W AND 54W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W FROM 19N IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO VENEZUELA BETWEEN THE PENINSULA DE PARAGUANA OF VENEZUELA AND LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO 15N75W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 76W...AND FROM 10N TO 13NBETWEEN 79W AND 81W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE EASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS IS ALONG 12N15W IN COASTAL GUINEA- BISSAU TO 07N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N20W 04N30W AND 03N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 03N TO 08N AFRICA AND 40W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N23W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER FROM 10N TO 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 31W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 25W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LINE 30N24W 10N36W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THE CENTRAL U.S.A. IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS PASSING THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY IN THE PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS...TO 27N90W 23N94W AND 18N95W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF MEXICO JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BORDER WITH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 32N83W IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO 30N85W TO 27N89W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CLOUD BAND THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W EASTWARD. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES...AND SOME COASTAL STATIONS...THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... CLOUD CEILINGS THAT RANGE IN HEIGHT FROM 6000 FEET TO 9000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KHHV...KVAF...KGBK...KEIR...KSPR... KMDJ...KVOA...KVKY...KMIS...AND KBVE. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KGBK...KATP... KGRY...KIKT...AND KIPN. ...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO 15N75W TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF COSTA RICA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD...MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 81W/82W FROM 13N TO 19N. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 13N. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER SOUTHWESTWARD...ACROSS SOUTHERN NICARAGUA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO 15N76W TO THE BORDER OF EASTERN HONDURAS/ NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 76W...AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE EASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS. CURRENT CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. NORTH-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL FOLLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START NEAR ABACO ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...AND IT WILL MOVE TO JAMAICA AT THE END OF 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN- TO-SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.06 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.01 IN BERMUDA. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 24N53W...TOWARD THE EASTERN TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 26N60W 29N71W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 29N71W TO 32N75W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 32N75W NORTHWESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N46W 25N54W 20N60W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN THE LINE FROM 32N50W TO 23N58W TO 19N61W TO THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE LINE FROM 30N73W 23N80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N45W 25N52W 22N58W 18N64W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W 25N50W 18N63W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 38N15W...THROUGH 32N23W TO 27N29W 24N35W AND 21N50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT