000 AXNT20 KNHC 181158 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF LIBERIA NEAR 07N11W TO 05N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N14W TO 02N27W AND 01N37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N25W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 25W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 28N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 20N49W 11N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 33W AND 45W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THIS AREA MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS PASSING THROUGH IOWA TO KANSAS... OKLAHOMA...AND CENTRAL TEXAS...IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO 23N99W IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N NORTHWARD BEYOND LOUISIANA...BETWEEN 88W AND 93W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE AREAS THAT ARE TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W EASTWARD. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES...AND SOME COASTAL STATIONS...THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... CLOUD CEILINGS THAT RANGE IN HEIGHT FROM 6000 FEET TO 9000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...AND KMDJ. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KGBK...KGHB... KATP...KGRY...KEIR...KSPR...KVOA...KBVE...AND K9F2 ...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 15N80W TO A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N81W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N IN COLOMBIA TO 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CURRENT CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI... SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL START ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH...AND THEN PURE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL START DAY ONE. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS FEATURE WILL SEND NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...AND BECOME EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW BY THE END OF DAY ONE. THE WIND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT THE START OF DAY TWO...AND BECOME NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW BY THE END OF DAY TWO. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N81W...ACROSS COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STRONG IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.07 IN GUADELOUPE. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N53W TO 31N58W TO 26N66W TO 22N70W. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO 30N62W AND BEYOND 32N72W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ALONG 31N50W 27N60W 26N67W AND 26N72W. THE FRONT IS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT FROM 26N72W TO NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N46W 26N55W...TO HAITI NEAR 20N70W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO 25N37W AND 25N52W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT