000 AXNT20 KNHC 172353 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 14N46W TO 07N49W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES A MOISTURE SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...WITH A 700 MB TROUGHING IS EVIDENT BETWEEN 48W-55W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AT THIS TIME. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 18N62W TO 11N62W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT WITH A SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 61W-66W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W AND EXTENDS TO 06N15W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 03N28W TO 09N47W...THEN RESUMES TO THE W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 08N52W TO 10N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN 40W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER SW MEXICO HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS NE ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...A 1002 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N97W WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO NE MEXICO NEAR 25N100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE NW GULF N OF 26N AND W OF 92W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT N OF 26N WHERE FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS PREVAIL. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW TO MOVE OVER THE NW GULF WATERS ENHANCING CONVECTION AND WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH EXTENDS FROM THE EPAC ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER. TO THE E...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 79W. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION BETWEEN 70W-80W AFFECTING E CUBA AND W HISPANIOLA. TO THE S...A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N82W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 15N78W. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THESE FEATURES. TO THE E...A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES COVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE SW WHERE WINDS ARE IN THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RANGE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 79W SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE ISLAND...WITH HIGHER COVERAGE OVER HAITI. A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM THE SW. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS AND W CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 22N BETWEEN 61W-76W. A SHEAR LINE WAS ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 26N66W TO 27N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE BASIN SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 27N43W TO 31N36W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST NE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND EXTENDS FROM 27N46W TO 31N40W. FARTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N27W TO 21N28W. THIS TROUGH IS A REFLECTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-26N AND E OF 27W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA