000 AXNT20 KNHC 171749 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 15N44W TO 07N48W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES A MOISTURE SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE. 700 MB TROUGHING IS EVIDENT BETWEEN 44W AND 51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 48W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 19N61W TO 11N59W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN RELATIVELY DRY AIR. A SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGH IS INDICATED BETWEEN 59W AND 63W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W AND EXTENDS TO 06N14W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 03N30W TO 07N46W...THEN RESUMES TO THE W OF THE CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N51W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 09N61W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR SW MEXICO HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. A STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER COLORADO SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER TX THAT IS APPROACHING THE TX GULF COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND SUPPORTS FRESH EAST-SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF...AND FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. CURRENTLY...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE BASIN. HOWEVER...CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TX COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE NW GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OVER THE NW GULF OVERNIGHT WITH ONGOING CONVECTION SPREADING SE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONG SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED NM SE OF THE FRONT. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N81W AND IS INTERACTING WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 73W AND 82W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS GENERALLY FREE OF DEEP CONVECTION. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS AND W CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 27N BETWEEN 66W AND 77W. A BROAD REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OCCURRING TO THE S OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC. THIS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM OF A LINE FROM 27N69W TO 27N58W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N36W TO 27N45W TO 26N54W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST NE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND EXTENDS FROM 31N40W TO 28N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THESE BOUNDARIES. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 24N25W TO 19N27W IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW TO SUPPORT ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 20W AND 29W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO