000 AXNT20 KNHC 171153 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W FROM 13N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 36W AND 53W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N57W TO 09N56W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 53W AND 63W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 06N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N15W TO 02N25W AND 03N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N31W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER FROM 08N TO 31N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 20W AND 31W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 28N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 34W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS IS FORECAST TO REACH THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL WATERS DURING THE TIME PERIOD FROM 17/1800 UTC TO 18/0000 UTC. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF NEW MEXICO AT THIS TIME. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 86W WESTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...RELATED TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CURVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM NORTHWESTERN CUBA...TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN GEORGIA...ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 20N96W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES...AND SOME COASTAL STATIONS...THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KBBF... KGVX...KGLS...KVAF...KGUL...KGHB...KEIR...KVKY...KMIS...AND KAXO. ...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 81W/82W FROM NORTHWESTERN CUBA SOUTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STRONG FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 70W AND 85W. A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N58W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 56W AND 62W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 14N58W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 14N52W. THE CURRENT 19N57W 09N56W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 53W AND 63W. CURRENT CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE 48-HOUR FORECAST WILL START WITH THE CURRENT 81W TROUGH IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND BE ALONG THE LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO JAMAICA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AT THE END OF DAY ONE. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD MORE DURING DAY TWO... BEING ALONG THE LINE FROM HISPANIOLA TO COSTA RICA DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS OR SO OF DAY TWO...BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD AGAIN IN ORDER TO BE ALONG THE LINE FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO 17N75W... AND EVENTUALLY TO COSTA RICA. MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST PART OF DAY TWO. PURELY CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AFTER THE TROUGH HAS MOVED TO THE MONA PASSAGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH A TROUGH ALONG 79W/80W...AND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N50W. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THOSE TWO WEATHER REGIMES...AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE WIND FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AS A CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER FORMS NEAR 14N78W BY THE END OF DAY ONE... AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONE WILL HAVE MOVED TO 20N47W. A TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHEAST...BRINGING NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER EVENTUALLY PUSHES THE TROUGH TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER ENDS UP NEAR 28N73W. MORE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...AND BECOME EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW BY THE END OF DAY ONE. THE WIND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT THE START OF DAY TWO...AND BECOME NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW BY THE END OF DAY TWO. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 04N77W 05N79W 06N83W 06N86W 07N88W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA...WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM OF LAND. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS ARE 0.29 IN GUADELOUPE. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 27N44W AND 25N56W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N56W TO 25N66W. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 25N66W TO 25N74W. A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N35W 29N39W 28N40W 25N43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N AND THE GREATER ANTILLES NORTHWARD TO 27N BETWEEN 69W AND FLORIDA...AND IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N33W 23N45W 19N64W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N18W...THROUGH 32N24W TO 25N36W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N78W IN NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...TO BERMUDA...TO 30N52W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT