000
AXNT20 KNHC 170015
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC FROM 12N40W TO
04N41W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN 700 MB
MODEL FIELD. SSMI TPW SHOWS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.
NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. 

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 19N53W TO
08N52W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N-
18N BETWEEN 52W-58W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
06N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N16W TO 05N29W TO 06N34W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
05N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-24N BETWEEN 18W-
30W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...    

SCATTEROMETER WINDS SHOW A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 23N97W TO 18N94W. THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
HAS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF 82W TO THE BAHAMAS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 15 KT E TO SE RETURN FLOW WITH FAIR
WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
W GULF W OF 87W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER E TEXAS AND THE NW
GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF WITH MOISTURE
OVER S FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ...AND CUBA. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WITH
CONVECTION.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                              

15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS N OF 18N
BETWEEN 77W-81W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER N COLOMBIA...THE SW CARIBBEAN...
PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA FROM 08N-14N BETWEEN 72W-83W.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
NEAR 20N82W ENHANCING CONVECTION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 15N59W WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   
 
...HISPANIOLA...                                              

SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER HISPANIOLA WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA
TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N-26N E
OF 72W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N41W TO
27N50W TO 26N58W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 25N75W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT IS FURTHER E FROM 31N36W TO 25N43W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 18N33W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 19W-29W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE E...AND FOR
CONTINUED CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE BAHAMAS. 
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA