000 AXNT20 KNHC 161746 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 12N39W TO 04N40W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN 700 MB MODEL FIELDS. SSMI TPW SHOWS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS TIME. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 19N52W TO 08N52W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N25W TO 05N38W...THEN RESUMES TO THE W OF THE EASTERN ATLC TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 05N41W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 11N BETWEEN 19N AND 28W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 28W AND 36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORTWAVE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND IS INTERACTING WITH AN OLD FRONTAL ZONE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N TO 26N E OF 84W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF WITH AN AXIS FROM 23N97W TO 19N94W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE SE OF A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT OVER TX/LA IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF FROM 26N TO THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 87W AND 94W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLC STATES OF THE US IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. VARIABLE WINDS ARE TO THE W OF THE SW GULF SURFACE TROUGH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW GULF TONIGHT AND CROSS THE NW GULF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG S TO SE WINDS AS WELL AS CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SHORTWAVE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W. THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN UNDER AN ENVIRONMENT OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND HIGH MOISTURE. THIS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 84W. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 17N BETWEEN 69W AND 78W. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN. ...HISPANIOLA... SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N43W TO 26N60W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N70W TO S FL NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS INTERACTING WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N TO 26N W OF 70W...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND FL STRAITS. FARTHER EAST...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N37W TO 24N46W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR 18N35W SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N TO 24N BETWEEN 20W AND 29W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO