000 AXNT20 KNHC 161120 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N50W TO 19N50W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CENTRAL ATLC MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 25N56W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS THE WAVE IS MOVING WITHIN A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE SAME REGION RESULTING IN A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N16W TO 05N38W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 19W-31W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-21N BETWEEN 21W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF FROM 29N85W TO A BASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N85W. MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS GENERALLY S OF 26N E OF 87W THIS MORNING...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND MUCH OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. OTHERWISE...AS SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORS ITSELF ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FOCUSED ON A 1028 MB HIGH...MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BY LATE MONDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS E-SE WINDS INCREASE TO STRONG BREEZE LEVELS ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N85W TO A BASE OVER NE NICARAGUA NEAR 14N84W. TO THE EAST OF THIS AXIS...A FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 16N BETWEEN 73W-86W...AND ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 75W-84W...INCLUDING PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 10N. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY E OF 74W PROVIDING FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. A FEW PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY OCCURRING BETWEEN 70W- 80W. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH RIDGING ALOFT IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC IN THE VICINITY OF 41N41W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N45W SW TO 25N65W THEN WESTWARD AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 27N W OF 68W. MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STEMS NOT ONLY FROM THE FRONT IN PLACE...BUT FROM DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA. OTHERWISE...RIDGING ANCHORED ACROSS THE SE CONUS EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FROM BERMUDA TO THE SE U.S. COAST. FARTHER EAST...A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM 32N36W SW TO 25N48W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. FINALLY...THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N18W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN