000 AXNT20 KNHC 160545 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N49W TO 19N49W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CENTRAL ATLC MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 24N51W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS THE WAVE IS MOVING WITHIN A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE SAME REGION RESULTING IN A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N20W TO 06N35W TO 02N51W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-09N BETWEEN 23W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 29N88W TO A BASE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W. MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS TO 25N85W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS GENERALLY S OF 27N E OF 90W THIS EVENING...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...AS SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORS ITSELF ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FOCUSED ON A 1030 MB HIGH...MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ON MONDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS E-SE WINDS INCREASE TO STRONG BREEZE LEVEL ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W TO A BASE OVER NE NICARAGUA NEAR 14N84W. TO THE EAST OF THIS AXIS...A FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ENVIRONMENT EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 18N BETWEEN 74W-86W...AND ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 75W-85W...INCLUDING PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 09N/10N. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY E OF 74W PROVIDING FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. A FEW PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY OCCURRING BETWEEN 70W-80W. ...HISPANIOLA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND FROM 20N74W TO 23N72W THAT IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC IN THE VICINITY OF 39N47W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N50W SW TO 25N70W THEN WESTWARD TO 25N75W. THE FRONT CONTINUES STATIONARY TO THE FLORIDA KEYS AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 28N W OF 70W AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 70W. MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STEMS NOT ONLY FROM THE FRONT...BUT FROM DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA. OTHERWISE...RIDGING ANCHORED ACROSS THE SE CONUS EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS. FARTHER EAST...A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM 31N37W SW TO 25N50W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. FINALLY...THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N18W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN