000 AXNT20 KNHC 152347 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 19N46W TO 08N47W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS LIGHT TO MODERATE MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE. WITH THIS...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 44W-49W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PREVAILS OVER AFRICA ENDING NEAR THE AFRICAN COAST. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS NEAR 06N21W AND CONTINUES THROUGH 02N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-08N BETWEEN 22W- 31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT BEGINS AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS W ACROSS S FL TO 25N85W. TO THE W...A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF IS INTERACTING WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE S OF THE FRONT SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 26N AND E OF 90W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING FROM 25N97W TO 20N96W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE SE GULF SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E GULF. WINDS OVER THE NW GULF WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG BY MONDAY WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL EMERGE OFF THE TX COAST LATE TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF EXTENDS S ACROSS THE FAR W CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED E OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 78W-86W AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CUBA...JAMAICA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER PANAMA IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF13N BETWEEN 77W-84W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT BETWEEN 70W-78W WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 80W. ...HISPANIOLA... A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED TO THE N OF THE ISLAND FROM THE 22N68W TO 20N69W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE ISLAND SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A FEW SHALLOW TRADE WIND SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N55W TO 25N76W.AT THIS POINT THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY EXTENDING W ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO. A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC W OF 72W. TO THE E...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN ENTERING OUR DISCUSSION AREA AS A COLD FRONT FROM 31N37W TO 26N47W THEN BECOMING STATIONARY FROM THAT POINT TO 25N57W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 17N59W TO 15N60W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS OBSERVED FROM 10N-22N AND E OF 35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA