000 AXNT20 KNHC 151749 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 19N46W TO 09N46W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MODEST POLEWARD ENHANCEMENT OF MOISTURE. 700 MB TROUGHING IS EVIDENT BETWEEN 42W AND 50W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER AFRICA TERMINATES AT THE AFRICAN COAST. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS NEAR 06N23W AND CONTINUES THROUGH 04N40W TO 02N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 16N BETWEEN 22W AND 35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC THAT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS S FL TO 25N82W TO 24N89W. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF IS INTERACTING WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LOCATED TO THE S OF THE FRONT...SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N TO 26N E OF 91W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM NEAR 25N97W TO 19N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS COVER THE GULF BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO NW WINDS ARE OCCURRING. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE SE GULF AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT...BECOMING S TO SE OVER THE NW GULF SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS OVER THE NW GULF WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG ON MONDAY WELL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE TX COAST LATE TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF AND YUCATAN IS INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AIRMASS TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 76W AND 89W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND THE NEARBY E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 75W AND 84W. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS INHIBITING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 17N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ...HISPANIOLA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLAND FROM THE 22N68W TO 20N69W THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE ISLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT...SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH JUST A FEW PASSING SHALLOW TRADE WIND SHOWERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N58W TO 27N70W TO 25N77W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR MIAMI. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF IS INTERACTING WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND MOISTURE TO THE S OF THE FRONT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 76W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N66W TO THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. A DISSIPATING 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N63W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N36W TO 27N45W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 18N19W TO 14N18W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SE OF THE AZORES DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO