000 AXNT20 KNHC 151138 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N45W TO 18N42W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CENTRAL ATLC MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 24N50W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS THE WAVE IS MOVING WITHIN A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE SAME REGION RESULTING IN ONLY A SMALL AREA OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N-16N BETWEEN 38W-46W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N18W TO 05N32W TO 03N41W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-13N BETWEEN 18W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF FROM 27N90W TO A BASE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA NEAR 18N89W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO 24N89W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS GENERALLY E OF 92W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...AS SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORS ITSELF ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO...FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL SUNDAY. BY EARLY MONDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS GENERALLY W OF 78W THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY E OF 77W PROVIDING FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. A FEW PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY OCCURRING BETWEEN 70W-80W. ...HISPANIOLA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLAND FROM THE 20N68W TO 23N65W THAT IS FORECAST TO SKIRT NORTH OF THE ISLAND SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 34N66W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N60W SW TO 27N71W THEN STATIONARY TO THE FLORIDA KEYS AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 22N-29N W OF 74W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 74W. OTHERWISE...RIDGING ANCHORED ACROSS THE SE CONUS EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS. THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE NOTED IS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 20N68W TO 23N65W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 66W-70W. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N37W EXTENDING SW TO 26N50W THEN DISSIPATING TO 24N59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. FINALLY...THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N34W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN