000
AXNT20 KNHC 142346
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...  
                                      
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N40W TO 05N45W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. TPW SSMI IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
MODERATE MOISTURE. DESPITE THIS...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
PRESENT ALONG THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME DUE TO SUBSIDENCE
PREVAILING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 
                                    
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
05N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N19W TO 07N41W THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N46W
TO 05N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N AND E OF
26W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                             

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE GULF FROM 23N90W TO
25N81W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
AT UPPER-LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
CAMPECHE GENERATING A DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN. WITH THIS...CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY S OF 26N
AND E OF 91W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                             

THE DIFFLUENT FLOW THAT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ALSO ENHANCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 84W. TO THE
SE...AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED S OF 14N BETWEEN 78W-84W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. FURTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 17N65W
WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL MOVE NW ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC. 
 
...HISPANIOLA...   
                                           
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME.
SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE N OF THE
ISLAND. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 26N80W TO 31N65W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND BAHAMAS WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG
THE BOUNDARY E OF 76W. TO THE E... ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 24N57W TO 31N39W WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TO THE W ATLANTIC FROM 17N65W TO 21N64W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE
SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 26N18W TO 21N17W. EXPECT THE TWO FRONTAL
SYSTEMS TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA