000 AXNT20 KNHC 141131 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N40W TO 15N35W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC WATERS AND NW AFRICA. THE WAVE ALSO LIES BENEATH RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE WEST- NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 04N20W TO 04N25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N25W TO 07N40W TO 05N52W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-17N BETWEEN 19W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NE CONUS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN NORTH ATLC WATERS THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO 24N90W TO 24N96W. A SURFACE TROUGH BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 24N96W SOUTHWARD PARALLELING THE MEXICO COAST TO 19N95W. MOST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE GULF W OF A LINE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N85W. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN ITSELF DUE LARGELY IN PART TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 27N97W TO 18N95W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE HOWEVER OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. EVEN WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE BASIN...MOSTLY FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM OF THE MEXICO COAST WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 19N-24N. OTHERWISE...AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS ITSELF ACROSS THE SE CONUS. WINDS WILL VEER MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BY MONDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS GENERALLY W OF 80W THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY E OF 80W PROVIDING FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. A FEW PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND HISPANIOLA...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY OCCURRING BETWEEN 70W- 80W. ...HISPANIOLA... SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER HISPANIOLA WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY THEN FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NE CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N68W SW TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LARGELY CONFINED TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 25N-28N W OF 77W. OTHERWISE...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N56W. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT 1018 MB IS ANALYZED NEAR 27N65W THAT IS PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. HOWEVER... OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N41W EXTENDING SW TO 26N50W TO 25N57W THEN WESTWARD AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR 24N67W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT FROM 18N62W TO 21N57W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 18N- 22N BETWEEN 54W-64W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 40N17W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 23N40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN