000 AXNT20 KNHC 140550 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N39W TO 13N38W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC WATERS AND NW AFRICA. THE WAVE ALSO LIES BENEATH RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE WEST- NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 08N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N22W TO 05N30W TO 08N39W TO 05N52W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-16N BETWEEN 18W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NE CONUS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN NORTH ATLC WATERS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO 24N94W TO THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N96W. MOST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF W OF A LINE FROM GALVESTON BAY TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA NEAR 22N84W DUE LARGELY IN PART TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 27N99W TO 19N96W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE HOWEVER OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT... INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. EVEN WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE BASIN...MOSTLY FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM OF THE MEXICO COAST FROM 19N-23N. OTHERWISE...AS THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS ITSELF ACROSS THE SE CONUS. WINDS WILL VEER MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BY MONDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS GENERALLY W OF 80W THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY E OF 80W PROVIDING FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. A FEW PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND HISPANIOLA...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY OCCURRING BETWEEN 70W- 80W. ...HISPANIOLA... SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER HISPANIOLA WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NE CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N68W SW TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LARGELY CONFINED TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 25N-28N W OF 77W. OTHERWISE...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N57W. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT 1017 MB IS ANALYZED NEAR 27N68W THAT IS PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. HOWEVER... OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N40W EXTENDING SW TO 25N54W THEN WESTWARD TO 25N60W BECOMING STATIONARY TO NEAR 26N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT FROM 18N61W TO 21N57W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 52W-62W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 40N16W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 32N26W TO 22N40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN