000 AXNT20 KNHC 132351 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED TO THIS ANALYSIS AFTER EXAMINING SATELLITE IMAGERY...LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 13N38W TO 05N38W. A WEAK LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY BETWEEN 28W- 35W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 16N86W TO THE EPAC 09N86W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15- 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF VERY HIGH MOISTURE...WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING PRODUCING A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS COAST AFRICA NEAR 07N12W TO 06N20W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 06N35W THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N41W TO 05N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-09N AND W OF 25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM 19N96W TO 24N95W TO 27N82W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS N OF THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS THE W GULF WHILE MODERATE NE TO E WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF IS PRODUCING A DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE AREA WHICH SUPPORTS SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING S ACROSS THE BASIN. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND WEAKEN. FRESH E TO NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY N OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N87W TO 16N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 19N AND W OF 83W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPORTING SOME OF THIS CONVECTION ALSO. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED S OF 14N BETWEEN 77W-83W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MAINLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS N OF THE COLOMBIA COAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS THE MOIST AND DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N80W TO 31N75W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT. TO THE E...A 1015 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N73W. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 26N71W TO 26N66W THEN TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 26N54W TO 31N44W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 18N59W TO 22N55W. A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC WITH FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE COLD FRONTS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE WITH CONVECTION. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS S FL AND BAHAMAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS N OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA