000 AXNT20 KNHC 131140 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N82W TO 15N82W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 80W-90W. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO OVER THIS REGION DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 09N- 19N BETWEEN 78W-84W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO 04N16W TO 07N25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N28W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 07N36W TO 02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 16W-20W... AND FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 22W-26. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 04N-17N BETWEEN 12W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF NEW ENGLAND THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA SW TO 25N96W TO THE EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N97W. MOST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF S OF A LINE FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS NEAR 26N97W TO THE NW TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W. EVEN WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE BASIN...MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM OF THE MEXICO COAST FROM 20N-25N. OTHERWISE...AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST GRADUALLY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...NE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE LEVELS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS ITSELF ACROSS THE SE CONUS. WINDS WILL VEER MORE EAST- SOUTHEASTERLY BY MONDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W AND ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 09N-19N BETWEEN 78W-85W. IN ADDITION...SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY E OF 77W PROVIDING FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. A FEW PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES... HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY OCCURRING BETWEEN 70W-80W. ...HISPANIOLA... SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER HISPANIOLA WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THEN FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 27N68W. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT 1017 MB IS ANALYZED OFF THE COAST OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N75W THAT IS PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING FOR THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. HOWEVER...OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC...A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N47W EXTENDING SW TO 27N60W THEN WESTWARD TO 26N67W BECOMING STATIONARY TO NEAR 26N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 55W...AND WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE FRONT E OF 55W. A WEAK PRE- FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 25N62W TO 22N69W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED TO THE E-SE FROM 19N56W TO 23N53W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 52W-58W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 42N16W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SW TO 32N27W TO 24N45W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN