000 AXNT20 KNHC 130550 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N82W TO 16N82W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 80W-90W. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO OVER THIS REGION DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-20N BETWEEN 78W-85W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO 06N40W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N40W TO 04N51W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-14N BETWEEN 11W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE DELMARVA REGION THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE PIEDMONT S-SW TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ACROSS THE GULF FROM 30N85W TO 24N96W THEN STATIONARY TO THE EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N98W. MOST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF S OF A LINE FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS NEAR 26N97W TO THE NW TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W. EVEN WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE BASIN...MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM OF THE MEXICO COAST FROM 20N-25N. OTHERWISE...AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST GRADUALLY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...NE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE LEVELS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ITSELF ACROSS THE SE CONUS. WINDS WILL VEER MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY BY MONDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W AND ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 11N-20N BETWEEN 78W-85W. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PROVIDING FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRIDAY. A FEW PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES... HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED E OF 77W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY OCCURRING BETWEEN 70W-80W. ...HISPANIOLA... SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER HISPANIOLA WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THEN FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 28N69W. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS ANALYZED OFF THE COAST OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N78W THAT IS PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING FOR THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. HOWEVER...OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC...A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N50W EXTENDING SW TO 27N63W THEN WESTWARD TO 27N70W BECOMING STATIONARY TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 55W...AND WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE FRONT E OF 55W. A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 26N63W TO 23N67W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 41N17W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SW TO 32N27W TO 24N50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN