000 AXNT20 KNHC 122348 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 15N80W TO THE EPAC NEAR 06N80W...MOVING W AT AROUND 20 KT. A SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGH IS BETWEEN 79W AND 82W IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH MOISTURE. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION AROUND THE WAVE N OF 11N BETWEEN 77W-83W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM S BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W TO THE EPAC NEAR 09N93W. PLEASE REFER TO THE E PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATWDEP FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO 06N39W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 04N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN 10W AND 34W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-16N AND E OF 36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FROM 23N98W TO 28N92W TO 30N86W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. A WEAK 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N85W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE BASIN AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONSHORE BUT MOVING QUICKLY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS FRESH NW WINDS N OF THE FRONT WHILE MODERATE S TO SW WINDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE FRONT. A MODERATE AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE AREA WITH CONVECTION. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FROM THE FL KEYS TO THE SW GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER SW CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. WITH THIS...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION PREVAILS FROM 11N-19N AND OF 77W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND UPPER- LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. ...HISPANIOLA... SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER HISPANIOLA WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THEN FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR AS A COLD FRONT FROM 31N55W TO 28N64W TO 27N76W THEN TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 27N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 25N64W TO 23N67W. TO THE E...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N54W TO 19N53W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC FROM 30N31W TO 24N34W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THIS AXIS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA