000 AXNT20 KNHC 121201 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... KATE HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ITS CENTER AT 12/0900 UTC IS NEAR 40.7N 50.8W. KATE IS MOVING EAST- NORTHEASTWARD...OR 60 DEGREES...23 KNOTS. NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 40N TO 43N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KATE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KATE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE NUMEROUS STRONG THAT WAS JUST TO THE WEST OF LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA 6 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RE-LOCATED IN ORDER TO BE ALONG 88W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD. THIS POSITION AGREES WITH THE MOST-CURRENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH WESTERN HONDURAS AND EASTERN EL SALVADOR. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W WESTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ALSO IS IN THE AREA OF THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM 70W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13.5N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 80W AND THE COASTS OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE WATERS ELSEWHERE FROM 75W WESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO BETWEEN 92W AND 96W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W...TO 10N28W 08N35W 05N37W AND 04N40W. NO ITCZ IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 08N SOUTHWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS BECOME SO STRETCHED OUT AND DISTORTED THAT IT REALLY IS NOT DISTINGUISHABLE ANY MORE. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARENT FEATURE HAS REACHED THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 29N67W AND 28N74W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND IT CONTINUES FROM 28N74W...AND IT CONTINUES TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W...AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 31N60W TO 29N66W TO 27N74W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM THE BAHAMAS NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 31N TO 32N BETWEEN 56W AND 58W. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N80W...ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 19N96W. ...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... PLEASE READ THE SECTION ABOUT TROPICAL WAVES FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES THAT CURRENTLY ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 63W WESTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 60W AND 77W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 52W AND 65W. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM 100 MB TO 250 MB IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CURRENT CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THIS WIND REGIME IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT HISPANIOLA IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CURRENT WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. SOME NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...THAT IS MORE RELATED TO AN AREA OF EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...IS MERGING WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF HISPANIOLA. A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH EVENTUALLY FORMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND IT CONTINUES THERE FOR THE LAST 12 TO 18 HOURS OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SOME MINOR VARIATIONS OF NORTHEASTERLY AND/OR SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER STARTS NEAR 27N70W. IT ENDS MOVING TO 27N52W BY THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SOME MINOR VARIATIONS OF NORTHEASTERLY AND/OR SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME. AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 24N/25N. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND 85W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IS OCCURRING FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 12/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.31 IN BERMUDA...0.12 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...AND 0.06 IN GUADELOUPE. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N32W 26N33W TO 16N34W...AND 08N41W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N30W...TO 30N29W 27N30W AND 23N32W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN 28W AND 33W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N66W 24N67W 20N68W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 65W AND 67W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N59W 26N62W 23N67W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT