000 AXNT20 KNHC 120604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATE AT 12/0300 UTC IS NEAR 40.1N 52.3 WEST. KATE IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...OR 65 DEGREES... 36 KNOTS. NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 40N TO 43N BETWEEN 47W AND 52W. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM KATE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM KATE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN A SMALL AREA FROM 09N TO 10N BETWEEN LAKE MARACAIBO AND THE VENEZUELA BORDER WITH COLOMBIA. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH EASTERN HONDURAS AND EASTERN NICARAGUA TO CENTRAL COSTA RICA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W WESTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ALSO IN THE AREA OF THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM 70W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 15N TO 19N FROM 80W WESTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE WATERS ELSEWHERE FROM 75W WESTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG INLAND AND FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 86W AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W...TO 10N23W 08N30W AND 05N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N40W TO 03N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 09.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 31W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 04N TO 13N FROM 36W EASTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS BECOME STRETCHED OUT AND DISTORTED. THE PART THAT WAS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN HAS RACED EASTWARD TO 58W FROM 30N NORTHWARD. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 27N70W TO 23N77W IN THE BAHAMAS...TO 21N85W IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...AND PARTS OF BELIZE AND GUATEMALA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N74W TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO 23N86W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 23N86W TO 20N94W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 64W AND 80W. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N80W...ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N88W... SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 19N96W. ...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 250 MB TO 500 MB...COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM 100 MB TO 250 MB COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CUBA INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 70W AND THE CUBA-TO-GULF OF HONDURAS TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DEEP LAYER TROUGH. CURRENT CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS REMAIN IN SANTO DOMINGO...AFTER SIX STRAIGHT OBSERVATIONS OF RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ABOUT 100 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT WILL COVER HISPANIOLA DURING THAT TIME FRAME EVENTUALLY WILL BE REPLACED BY NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION AT 48 HOURS WILL CONSIST OF A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 18N60W...AND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 16N81W. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THOSE TWO FEATURES. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE NEAR 25N68W DURING DAY TWO. EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA...WITH SOME MINOR VARIATIONS OF NORTHEASTERLY AND/OR SOUTHEASTERLY FROM TIME TO TIME. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE TWO-DAY FORECAST. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE ALONG 24N/25N. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 12/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.31 IN BERMUDA...0.06 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.12 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N32W 26N33W TO 16N34W...AND 08N41W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N30W...TO 30N29W 27N30W AND 23N32W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 21N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 26W AND 36W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N66W 23N67W 21N68W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 64W AND 66W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT