000 AXNT20 KNHC 112357 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE KATE IS CENTERED NEAR 38.2N 56.4W AT 11/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 543 NM NE OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 495 NM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND...MOVING ENE AT 38 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 35N TO 43N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N70W TO S AMERICA NEAR 08N71W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N83W TO 10N82W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A ENVIRONMENT OF VERY HIGH MOISTURE IN THE PRESENCE OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 77W-88W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO 10N20W TO 07N33W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 05N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 04N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-12N BETWEEN 15W-30W...AND FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 30W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING SE TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W WITH 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OVER THE N GULF WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N94W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO S TEXAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. FURTHER E...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N63W ENHANCING SHOWERS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION. ...HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA MOSTLY E OF 71W. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION SW OF THE ISLAND DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N67W TO 28N73W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO S FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 28N64W TO 22N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N52W TO 28N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1015 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N31W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N30W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA