000 AXNT20 KNHC 111757 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE KATE IS CENTERED NEAR 36.8N 60.5W AT 11/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 340 NM NE OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 680 NM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND...MOVING NE AT 39 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 35N TO 43N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 15N65W TO S AMERICA NEAR 05N66W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE. AT THIS TIME IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE A PRONOUNCED SIGNATURE OF THE WAVE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL ANALYSIS. IN FACT...THE 700 MB GFS STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THIS WAVE MAY BE CLOSER TO 68W. THEREFORE... CURRENT LOCATION IS MAINLY BASED OFF OF CONTINUITY AND SATELLITE TRENDS. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N82W TO 09N80W...MOVING W AT AROUND 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE HAS MERGED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WAS OVER THIS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A ENVIRONMENT OF VERY HIGH MOISTURE IN THE PRESENCE OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 14N84W TO 10N76W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 05N35W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 03N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 10W AND 34W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS W OF 35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC TO S FL TO THE SW GULF FROM 26N81W TO 23N85W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 22N93W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NE GULF SUPPORTING MODERATE NE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF N OF THE FRONT AND MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS OVER THE NW GULF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE ALONG AND S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...THE REMAINDER OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF ON THURSDAY. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE GULF BASIN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS GENERATING CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WHILE ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 84W AND 89W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER HISPANIOLA WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N72W TO THE FL EAST COAST NEAR 27N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N64W TO 22N66W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE SE WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 24N59W TO 19N57W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH 31N45W TO 28N55W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT THROUGH 31N56W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. FARTHER EAST...A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N31W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 27N33W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 275 NM S AND E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. HURRICANE KATE IS OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO