000 AXNT20 KNHC 111205 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... KATE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATE AT 11/0900 UTC IS NEAR 36.0N 65.7W...OR ABOUT 225 NM TO THE NORTH OF BERMUDA. KATE IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...OR 55 DEGREES...35 KNOTS. NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATE. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 35N TO 38N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. SWELLS FROM KATE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA THIS MORNING...AND THEY WILL CONTINUE DURING THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. IT IS LIKELY FOR THESE SWELLS TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT BULLETINS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM KATE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM KATE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W FROM 14N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM JAMAICA TO 11N64W. A WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL JAMAICA TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 09N76W...MOVING WESTARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND THE GULF OF URABA TO 12N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. PRECIPITATION WAS OCCURRING IN THIS SAME AREA 6 HOURS AGO. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. AN INLAND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD... MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN CUBA INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 77W WESTWARD AND IN BELIZE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION IS MORE DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS INLAND AND DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF GUINEA NEAR 09N13W...TO 07N17W AND 07N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N23W TO 06N30W AND 05N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 11N FROM 37W EASTWARD...AND FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 61W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 40W/41W FROM 02N TO 06N...BASED ON ASCAT-B HIGH RESOLUTION SCATTEROMETER DATA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO CENTRAL FLORIDA...ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND BEYOND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N74W TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO 23N86W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 23N86W TO 20N94W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 64W AND 80W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE MEXICO COAST ALONG 23N. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...ELSEWHERE...TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 250 MB TO 500 MB...COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM 100 MB TO 250 MB COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CUBA INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 70W AND THE CUBA-TO-GULF OF HONDURAS TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DEEP LAYER TROUGH. CURRENT CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS REMAIN IN SANTO DOMINGO...AFTER SIX STRAIGHT OBSERVATIONS OF RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ABOUT 100 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT WILL COVER HISPANIOLA DURING THAT TIME FRAME EVENTUALLY WILL BE REPLACED BY NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION AT 48 HOURS WILL CONSIST OF A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 18N60W...AND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 16N81W. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THOSE TWO FEATURES. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE NEAR 25N68W DURING DAY TWO. EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA...WITH SOME MINOR VARIATIONS OF NORTHEASTERLY AND/OR SOUTHEASTERLY FROM TIME TO TIME. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE TWO-DAY FORECAST. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE ALONG 24N/25N. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N75W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 09N84W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 80W AND THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS THE WATERS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF URABA...NEAR THE JAMAICA-TO-COLOMBIA TROPICAL WAVE. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 11/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.27 IN CURACAO...0.24 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.04 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO 24N20W TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 34N30W TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N32W...TO 26N33W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 24W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO 21N32W 12N40W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO A 1020 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N43W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 30N43W LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 27N50W AND 30N57W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD FROM 30N57W BEYOND 32N58W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 32N TO 34N BETWEEN 27W AND 30W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 66W/67W FROM 19N TO 26N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN 65W AND 66W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE FROM 22N TO 29N BETWEEN 61W AND 67W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 23N56W 19N55W 16N54W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT