000 AXNT20 KNHC 110603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATE AT 11/0300 UTC IS NEAR 33.9N 69.5W...OR ABOUT 255 NM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA. KATE IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...OR 55 DEGREES...30 KNOTS. NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATE. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 34N TO 36N BETWEEN 66W AND 69W. SWELLS FROM KATE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA TONIGHT...AND THEY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT IS LIKELY FOR THESE SWELLS TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT BULLETINS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM KATE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM KATE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. A REMNANT UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS BETWEEN 60W AND 70W TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE 14N70W 11N62W. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N76W 14N75W 09N74W...MOVING WESTARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 68W AND 77W...AROUND PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA... JAMAICA...AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. AN INLAND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W/90W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD... MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN CUBA INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W...FROM WESTERN NICARAGUA INTO SOUTHERN HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR AND COASTAL WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N82W 10N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 79W AND 84W...AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N13W...TO 08N16W TO 08N24W AND 05N36W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N36W TO 05N45W AND 04N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED AND ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 09N13W 07N23W...AND WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 07N23W 05N30W 04N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 29N75W...ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND BEYOND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO THE FLORIDA KEYS...TO 23N86W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 23N86W TO 22N90W. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 22N90W TO 21N94W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...ELSEWHERE...TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N70W. LITTLE TO NO CYCLONIC WIND FLOW REMAINS FROM THIS FEATURE. HIGH LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 66W EASTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CUBA INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 70W AND THE CUBA-TO-GULF OF HONDURAS TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO-TO-NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DEEP LAYER TROUGH. CURRENT CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ABOUT 100 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT WILL COVER HISPANIOLA DURING THAT TIME FRAME EVENTUALLY WILL BE REPLACED BY NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION AT 48 HOURS WILL CONSIST OF A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 18N60W...AND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 16N81W. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THOSE TWO FEATURES. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE NEAR 25N68W DURING DAY TWO. EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA...WITH SOME MINOR VARIATIONS OF NORTHEASTERLY AND/OR SOUTHEASTERLY FROM TIME TO TIME. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE TWO-DAY FORECAST. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE ALONG 24N/25N. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N/10N BETWEEN 76W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 84W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W TO 11N80W AND 10N77W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 11/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.27 IN CURACAO...0.24 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.04 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 24N25W 19N23W AND 14N30W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N30W TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N32W...TO 26N32W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 24W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 25N33W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO A 1020 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N44W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 31N44W LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 27N50W AND 30N58W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 29W AND 31W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT