000 AXNT20 KNHC 110004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM KATE IS CENTERED NEAR 32.2N 72.7W AT 10/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 225 NM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 400 NM W OF BERMUDA MOVING NE AT 26 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 31N-35N BETWEEN 69W-74W. A BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FURTHER S FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 70W-73W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 14N60W TO 06N60W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A MOISTURE MAXIMUM. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-15N BETWEEN 57W-65W. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N74W TO 10N73W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE WITH SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE S OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS EXTENDS FROM 17N88W TO 10N88W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 08N25W TO 05N35W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N35W TO 04N44W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 05N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-12N BETWEEN 10W- 24W...AND FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 24W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W WITH 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OVER THE N GULF. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N84W TO JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S FLORIDA AND ALONG THE COAST OF N YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO PRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER FLORIDA AND W CUBA WITH MOISTURE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A SURFACE HIGH TO BE CENTERED OVER S GEORGIA WITH 10-15 KT RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 14N82W TO 10N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 78W-82W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 15N69W ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT 20-25 KT TRADEWINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. ...HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA MOSTLY E OF 71W. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION S OF THE ISLAND DUE TO THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 30N78W TO S FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. T.S. KATE IS WELL E OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. SEE ABOVE. A 1020 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N43W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 29N50W TO 30N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1018 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N33W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 29N- 34N BETWEEN 31W-33W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N63W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N37W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA