000 AXNT20 KNHC 101757 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM KATE IS CENTERED NEAR 30.2N 74.7W AT 10/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 305 NM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 520 NM W OF BERMUDA MOVING NE AT 18 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 71W-76W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 26N-34N BETWEEN 69W-74W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N58W TO 14N44W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPIC MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A MOISTURE MAXIMUM FROM 07N- 13N BETWEEN 54W-61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N- 13N BETWEEN 54W-62W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N71W TO 18N73W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP- LAYERED MOISTURE WITH SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 69W-75W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 68W-72W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N87W TO 17N86W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 07N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N24W TO 07N30W TO 04N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-09N BETWEEN 03W-25W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 20W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SE CONUS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER WEST VIRGINIA SSW TO OVER THE FAR EAST-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N84W. THE TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO THE TAMPA BAY REGION TO 24N87W. THE FRONT THEN CONTINUES WESTWARD TO 22N96W AS STATIONARY. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED FROM 22N96W TO 19N95W. THE FRONT REMAINS RELATIVELY PRECIPITATION-FREE...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 90 NM TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...RIDGING EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO THE NW GULF WATERS TO EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GENTLE TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE A GENTLE EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE BASIN WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST EARLY THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM WESTERN CUBA TO A BROAD BASE OVER NW NICARAGUA. THE TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 10N82W TO 15N83W AND IS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 77W-84W. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO THE MAXIMUM UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NOTED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FARTHER EAST...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 14N BETWEEN 68W-73W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N68W AND ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 59W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 16N E OF 66W. OTHERWISE...SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENERALLY FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ...HISPANIOLA... A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 73W IS PROVIDING FOR INCREASED CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS WEST OF THE ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 15N68W WILL PROVIDE AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT FOR THE REGION PROMOTING SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM KATE REMAINS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK NE AND NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING. TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SE CONUS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA S-SW TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. THE FRONT REMAINS RELATIVELY PRECIPITATION-FREE...HOWEVER POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. FARTHER EAST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC WATERS IN THE VICINITY OF 36N43W THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N43W INTO A 1023 MB LOW NEAR 31N45W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 29N52W THEN STATIONARY TO NEAR BERMUDA. POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FINALLY...A UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 27N26W THAT SUPPORTS A 1020 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N32W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW NORTHWARD TO 33N31W AND SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW TO 25N31W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 30N BETWEEN 29W-35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN