000 AXNT20 KNHC 101152 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATE AT 10/0900 UTC IS NEAR 28.8N 75.8W AT 10/0900 UTC...OR ABOUT 245 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. KATE IS MOVING NORTHWARD...OR 10 DEGREES...15 KNOTS. KATE IS ACCELERATING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS. NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN AN AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY 26N72W 29N76W 31N73W 26N72W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM KATE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM KATE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. ...TROPICAL WAVES... THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 48W/49W FOR THE 10/0000 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS HAS BEEN RELOCATED BASED ON WAVE DIAGNOSTICS AND HOVMULLER DIAGRAMS. THE NEW POSITION OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 15N69W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS IN COLOMBIA FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W. ISOLATED MODERATE AROUND LAKE MARACAIBO IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W FROM 21N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 82W AND 90W...COVERING THE COASTAL WATERS OF HONDURAS INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND THE COASTAL PLAINS OF HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W...TO 09N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N18W 05N30W 04N38W 06N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N TO 11N FROM 26W EASTWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 26W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE U.S.A. EAST COAST... THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/ THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A WARM FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N80W...TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...ELSEWHERE...TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT. ...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 15N69W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE EASTERN SHORES OF JAMAICA...TO 15N71W...TO 11N64W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO-TO-NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DEEP LAYER TROUGH. MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 75W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 250 NM TO 400 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W. CURRENT CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE IN BARAHONA AND SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND COVER HISPANIOLA ALONG 69W/70W FOR DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER HAITI...WHILE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL COVER THE REST OF THE ISLAND...AT THE START OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SITUATION WILL LAST FOR THE FIRST 18 HOURS. THE RIDGE WILL COVER HISPANIOLA COMPLETELY FROM 18 HOURS UNTIL 36 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM EAST-TO-WEST DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A SERIES OF INVERTED TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 85W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO COSTA RICA TO THE WESTERN ONE-THIRD OF PANAMA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 10/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.38 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.07 IN BERMUDA. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N30W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 25N30W...TO 16N33W...AND TO 12N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30W/31W FROM 23N TO 31N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 19W AND 32W. A NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 31N49W. THE FRONT IS STATIONARY FROM 31N49W TO 31N57W AND 32N65W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 32N65W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT