000 AXNT20 KNHC 100605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATE IS NEAR 27.2N 76.0W AT 10/0300 UTC...OR ABOUT 152 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE EAST OF TROPICAL STORM KATE FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 64W AND 83W. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM KATE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM KATE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W FROM 13N SOUTHWARD MOVING WESTARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 16N71W AND 12N66W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W FROM 21N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N81W 12N81W 09N76W 06N75W ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 09N22W TO 06N27W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N27W TO 05N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA... THROUGH THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A WARM FRONT THAT IS IN NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...ELSEWHERE...TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT... ...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 15N69W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO-TO-NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DEEP LAYER TROUGH. MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 75W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N81W 12N81W 09N76W 06N75W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 16N71W AND 12N66W. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N31W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 14N38W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30W/31W FROM 23N TO 30N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 27W AND 32W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT