000 AXNT20 KNHC 100004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON NOV 09 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM KATE IS CENTERED NEAR 26.7N 76.0W AT 10/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 60 NM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND MOVING NNW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 73W-77W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM 13N46W TO 04N47W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT WITH SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATING A MOISTURE MAXIMUM. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 17N67W TO 10N66W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE WITH SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 66W-71W. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 20N83W TO 10N84W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH EXTENSIVE MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 79W-89W TO INCLUDE OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 09N22W TO 06N27W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N27W TO 05N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 13W- 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF TRINIDAD FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN 52W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED W OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA NEAR 30N85W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO TO 28N85W TO 25N87W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N90W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 22N94W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 18N95W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONTS WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PREVAILS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT TO BE OVER S FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION...20-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. 10-15 KT WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER W VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...AND PANAMA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER CUBA NEAR 15N68W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER JAMAICA FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 75W-80W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 15N68W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION. ...HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA MOSTLY E OF 71W. THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 66W AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... T.S. KATE IS OVER THE THE BAHAMAS. SEE ABOVE. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 33N BETWEEN 50W-70W. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N43W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N30W TO 24N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N68W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N30W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO DIP SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA