000 AXNT20 KNHC 091754 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON NOV 09 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM KATE IS CENTERED NEAR 24.9N 75.7W AT 09/1800 UTC OR ABOUT 25 NM ENE OF ELEUTHERA AND ABOUT 120 NM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND MOVING NW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 72W-76W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N42W TO 14N44W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT WITH SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATING A MOISTURE MAXIMUM FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 39W-45W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N64W TO 19N65W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP- LAYERED MOISTURE WITH SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 60W-67W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 58W-66W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N82W TO 20N82W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH HIGH MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING THE WAVE AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF 16N83W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 78W-85W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO 09N18W TO 05N29W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N29W TO 03N34W TO 03N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 18W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS WITH AXIS EXTENDING GENERALLY ALONG 88W. THE TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORTS A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N87W WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE GEORGIA AND FLORIDA BORDER NORTH OF JACKSONVILLE. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 28N86W TO 24N90W THEN CONTINUES SW STATIONARY TO THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N96W. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 24N BETWEEN 82W AND THE COLD FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. OTHERWISE... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO NEAR 24N99W. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE A GENTLE SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE E-NE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND GRADUALLY WEAK AS IT MOVES ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL LOW INFLUENCE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...ONE CENTERED NORTH OF JAMAICA NEAR 19N79W AND THE OTHER CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N68W. BOTH UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE PROVIDING AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC LIFT WITHIN THEIR RESPECTIVE EASTERN PERIPHERY. AIDED BY A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65W...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N71W TO 10N58W...INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 16N. THE WESTERN-MOST UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 82W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 17N BETWEEN 77W-86W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN THAT ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BETWEEN 70W-80W. ...HISPANIOLA... THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 65W IS PROVIDING FOR INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO TUESDAY. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED S OF 19N INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS WEST OF THE ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY WITH AN OVERALL DRYING TREND EXPECTED THEREAFTER. ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM KATE REMAINS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK N-NW. TO THE NW OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SE CONUS SUPPORTING A 1017 MB LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N80W. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS S-SW TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA THEN INTO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW AT 1013 MB CENTERED SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 31N...AND W OF 81W. FARTHER EAST...A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC WATERS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 34N50W W-SW TO 32N63W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO 32N75W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...A 1026 MB HIGH IS ANCHORED NEAR 30N56W AND INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC WITH FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS. FINALLY...ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N32W THAT SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N21W SW TO 28N31W. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM 23N31W TO THE FRONT NEAR 30N27W. THE BROAD-SCALE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE...COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP A WEAK LOW IN THE VICINITY OF 28N32W BY TUESDAY THAT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN