000 AXNT20 KNHC 090555 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON NOV 09 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING TO THE W OF A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF TO ABOUT 140 NM E OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. S OF 20N AND W OF 95W...NW TO N WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THAT TIME. FOR MORE DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER HSFAT2/FZNT02 FOR MORE DETAILS. AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N73W HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. T.D. TWELVE IS MOVING NW AT ABOUT 12 KT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAHAMAS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER TCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER TCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING EXTENDING FROM 15N39W TO 05N41W...MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT AND A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING IS EVIDENT AT 700 MB BETWEEN 34W AND 43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-14N BETWEEN 38W-43W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N59W TO 09N60W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WITH SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING EVIDENT BETWEEN 56W-62W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N- 17N BETWEEN 54W-66W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N80W TO 09N81W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE WITH A WELL DEFINED 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 77W AND 84W. STRONG NW WINDS ALOFT ARE PRODUCING SHEAR ACROSS THE WAVE WHICH IS ALLOWING ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 77W-84W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 13N12W TO 07N24W TO 06N35W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N43W TO 07N58W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 16W AND 24W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 46W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS OVER THE NE GULF FROM NEAR 29N83W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 29N88W. THE LOW HAS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 24N91W TO 18N94W. A PAIR OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ARE OVER THE NE GULF...ONE EXTENDING FROM 27N87W TO 23N90W AND THE SECOND ONE FROM 28N84W TO 25N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONTS/TROUGHS. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE A GENTLE SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF WATERS. PLEASE REFER TOT HE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND OVER THE SE US. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO STALL OUT WHILE WEAKENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. THE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA. TO THE S...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W. ...HISPANIOLA... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...UPGRADED TO T.D. TWELVE AS OF 0300 UTC...IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE S OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. AS THE T.D. MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE E BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N70W TO 30N75W. AFTER THIS POINT...IT TRANSITIONS INTO A STATIONARY FRONT AND CONTINUES TO 30N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW...UPGRADED TO T.D TWELVE AS OF 0300 UTC...IS CENTERED NEAR 23N72W. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N20W TO 25N27W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OBSERVED ALONG THIS TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA