000 AXNT20 KNHC 081136 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN NOV 08 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 26N W OF 94W. ANOTHER AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N-24N AND W OF 96W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER HSFAT2/FZNT02 FOR MORE DETAILS. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED N OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS DEPICTING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WNW. REGARDLESS OF ITS DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE BAHAMAS. THE CHANCE OF FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 10N39W TO 03N40W...MOVING W AT ABOUT 10-15 KT. SSMI TPW SHOWS THIS WAVE EMBEDDED IN HIGH MOISTURE AND A SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING IS INDICATED IN MODEL FIELDS BETWEEN 34W AND 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 35W-46W. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N55W TO 06N57W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH MOISTURE WITH A SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 50W-60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 54W-61W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N76W TO 10N77W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE AND A 700 MB TROUGHING IS EVIDENT BETWEEN 72W-80W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 75W-79W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W TO 07N29W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 07N38W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 08N41W TO 08N56W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 25W-36W AND FROM 07N-09N BETWEEN 44W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 93W. TO THE E...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA...ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REACHING THE E GULF ALONG 85W. AT LOWER LEVELS...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW GULF FROM 20N96W TO 28N92W TO 30N86W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N94W TO A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N91W TO 28N89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE FEATURES WITH A HIGHER CONCENTRATION N OF 24N BETWEEN 85W-93W. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA TO NW OF THE FRONT...WHERE A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT AND TROUGH TO CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE W GULF. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE WARNINGS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 85W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE CUBA NEAR 21N75W. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 15N65W. THESE LOWS ARE ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT NW OVER THE ATLANTIC. ...HISPANIOLA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING W AWAY FROM THE ISLAND WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ACROSS THE ISLAND ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 21N75W. ITS TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 75W SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND W ATLANTIC. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N70W TO 22N66W. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 20N52W TO 23N31W THEN AS A COLD FRONT FROM THAT LAST POINT TO 31N21W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N47W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA AS IT MOVES NW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA