000 AXNT20 KNHC 080545 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN NOV 08 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT W OF 96W BETWEEN 22N-24N STARTING BY 1200 UTC SUNDAY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER HSFAT2/FZNT02 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 12N37W TO 03N39W...MOVING W AT ABOUT 10-15 KT. SSMI TPW SHOWS THIS WAVE EMBEDDED IN MODERATE MOISTURE AND A SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING IS INDICATED IN MODEL FIELDS BETWEEN 33W AND 43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 32W-44W. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 15N52W TO 04N54W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH MOISTURE WITH A 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 48W- 55W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 50W-59W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N73W TO 10N74W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE AND A 700 MB TROUGHING IS EVIDENT BETWEEN 71W-78W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 70W-76W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 09N14W TO 07N21W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 08N36W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N40W TO 06N50W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 23W-33W AND FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 43W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 94W. TO THE E...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EPAC...ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REACHING THE E GULF ALONG 85W. AT LOWER LEVELS...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW GULF FROM 24N98W TO 30N87W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N95W TO 25N94W TO 28N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT...WITH A HIGHER CONCENTRATION N OF 25N BETWEEN 87W-94W. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA TO THE NW OF THE FRONT...WHERE A GALE WARNING IS ALREADY IN EFFECT. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE WARNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EPAC ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 85W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 15N64W. THESE LOWS ARE ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT NW OVER THE ATLANTIC. ...HISPANIOLA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF THE ISLAND WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE MONA PASSAGE. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED S OF PUERTO RICO ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN 63W- 72W. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N67W TO 18N68W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 22N60W TO 20N43W THEN AS A COLD FRONT FROM THAT LAST POINT TO 31N23W. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N48W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AS IT MOVES NW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA