000 AXNT20 KNHC 072337 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT NOV 07 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT W OF 96W STARTING BY 1200 UTC SUNDAY AND LASTING UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER HSFAT2/FZNT02 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 13N35W TO 01N37W...MOVING W AT AN ESTIMATED 15 KT. SSMI TPW INDICATES THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE MOISTURE. SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING IS INDICATED IN MODEL FIELDS BETWEEN 32W AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 34W AND 38W. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 15N50W TO 02N50W...MOVING W AT AROUND 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH MOISTURE WITH 700 MB TOUGHING EVIDENT BETWEEN 46W AND 52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 45W AND 55W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N72W TO 10N73W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. 700 MB TROUGHING IS EVIDENT BETWEEN 65W AND 75W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 09N13W TO 06N22W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 07N35W. THE ITCZ THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N38W TO 06N48W...THEN RESUMES ONCE AGAIN WEST OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 06N52W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 05N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 250 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS E OF 35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 225 NM N AND 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 38W AND 49W. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURROUNDING TROPICAL WAVES. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF SUPPORTS A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 23N95W. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 30N92W TO 27N97W. THE COMBINATION OF FORCING FROM THE LOW AND THE FRONT...AND HIGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 84W AND 96W. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS COVER THE GULF E OF THE LOW AND S OF THE FRONT. WINDS BECOME FRESH TO STRONG AND N TO NE N OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES S ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE SW GULF BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER RIDGING IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH NW WINDS ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE COVERING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE BAHAMAS TO HISPANIOLA TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 20N64W TO 16N66W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF A LINE FROM 19N68W TO 14N59W. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS EVENING. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD. ...HISPANIOLA... A TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA SUPPORTS CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS EVENING. A MOISTURE SURGE THAT IS BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF HISPANIOLA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS TO HISPANIOLA SUPPORTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SE BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N64W TO 17N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 63W AND 69W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N24W TO 21N40W TO 22N60W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N69W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR PUERTO RICO AS THE TROUGH MOVES W TO WNW OVER THE SW N ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO