000 AXNT20 KNHC 071728 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT NOV 07 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 13N33W TO 03N34W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SATELLITE WIND VECTORS SHOW CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 30W-35W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 14N48W TO 03N48W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE. AN INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD SIGNATURE IS ALSO NOTED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 43W-49W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N71W TO 10N72W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE AREA IS FURTHER ENHANCED DUE TO A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 65W-70W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 09N13W TO 07N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM THIS LAST POINT TO 07N34W TO 07N49W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 05N52W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 11W-15W... FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 21W-26W...AND FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 36W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS FROM 30N93W TO 27N97W TO 26N101W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 87W-95W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N94W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 22N...WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER FLORIDA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF AT 24N95W TO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N95W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT AND DISSIPATE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. FURTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 20N63W TO 16N65W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 15N- 24N BETWEEN 57W-69W TO INCLUDE PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA... AND COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 15N62W WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N95W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION...WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES NE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WITH CONVECTION. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING NE. MORE CONVECTION IS S OF HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING E. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N52W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N25W TO 22N40W TO 20N50W TO 25N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N60W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W- 50W SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE FURTHER E INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA