000 AXNT20 KNHC 071132 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT NOV 07 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1130 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED TO THIS MAP AFTER ANALYZING SATELLITE AND TPW IMAGERY...SATELLITE ESTIMATED WINDS...AND LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N33W TO 04N33W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE S OF 06N BETWEEN 31W-35W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 13N47W TO 03N47W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF HIGH MOISTURE. A SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING IS INDICATED IN MODEL GUIDANCE BETWEEN 44W-50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS S OF 11N BETWEEN 43W-48W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N71W TO 09N72W...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LEADING EDGE SURGE OF HIGH MOISTURE. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS EVIDENT AT 700 MB BETWEEN 68W-74W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 13N17W TO 09N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 07N31W. THE ITCZ THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 06N33W TO 08N46W. ANOTHER PORTION OF THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N48W TO 06N53W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS FROM 03N- 13N BETWEEN 20W-35W AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 36W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 22N93W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN TO THE EASTERN GULF ALONG 85W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N95W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 26N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THESE FEATURES AFFECTING THE W GULF WATERS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 90W- 96W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH TO CONTINUE ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE W GULF. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 14N86W AND EXTENDING ITS AXIS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN AND E GULF ALONG 85W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED E OF BAHAMAS AND IS EXTENDING ITS TROUGH ACROSS THE E-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED S OF HISPANIOLA. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE WAVE...PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. AT THE SURFACE...THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN MAINLY S OF 11N BETWEEN 77W-81W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING W ACROSS THE BASIN. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING S OF THE ISLAND. THIS WAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 23N73W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF 22N BETWEEN 66W- 72W. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N70W TO 21N54W...THEN AS A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 24N38W TO 31N26W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NEAR 32N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED AT ABOUT 125 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 19N59W TO 13N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 56W-63W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AS IT MOVES NW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA