000 AXNT20 KNHC 070003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI NOV 06 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N41W TO 07N42W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF HIGH MOISTURE. SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING IS INDICATED IN MODEL FIELDS BETWEEN 38W AND 45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N64W TO 10N66W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LEADING EDGE SURGE OF HIGH MOISTURE. A SHARP INVERTED TROUGH IS EVIDENT AT 700 MB BETWEEN 59W AND 67W WITH A 850 MB MAXIMUM IN VORTICITY NEAR 14N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 59W AND 66W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...S MEXICO...AND THE E PACIFIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 25N93W TO A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 20N93W TO 13N94W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. 700 MB TROUGHING IS INDICATED BETWEEN 90W AND 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 91W AND 97W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 10N21W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 09N40W. THE ITCZ THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 08N43W TO 05N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 24W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 70 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 43W AND 49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE EASTERN GULF WITH A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS DIFFLUENCE IS INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AIRMASS TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N BETWEEN 86W AND 91W. A COLD FRONT IS NEAR THE TX GULF COAST SUPPORTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO N FL TO THE NW GULF SUPPORTING MAINLY MODERATE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN. LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF NEAR CONVECTION AND THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BREAK AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE AND MOVE NW TO THE NW GULF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND INTERACT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE S CENTRAL US. THIS WILL SUPPORT ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING THIS AREA OF CONVECTION TO THEN MEANDER SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SSMI TPW SHOWS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS W OF 83W WHICH IS INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION W OF A LINE FROM 21N85W TO 11N86W. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS TO HISPANIOLA TO THE SE CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE LAND AREA OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE SE PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW TOWARD PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...EXTEND S OF THESE LAND AREAS TO NEAR 15N. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING AS A MODERATELY MOIST AIRMASS INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING HISPANIOLA FROM THE EAST. THIS WAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. DURING THAT TIME PERIOD...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS TO HISPANIOLA TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE BAHAMAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N26W TO 25N38W TO 23N60W TO 27N70W. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 55W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE FRONT W OF 55W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 19N56W TO 10N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 51W AND 57W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AS IT MOVES NW. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WHILE THE EASTERN PORTION CONTINUES TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO