000 AXNT20 KNHC 061705 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI NOV 06 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N40W TO 07N41W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 40W-42W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N63W TO 10N65W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LEADING EDGE OF A SMALL SURGE OF MOISTURE. AN INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD SIGNATURE IS ALSO NOTED. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 60W-65W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND S MEXICO WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 25N93W TO 14N94W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 20N93W. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE AREA IS FURTHER ENHANCED DUE TO A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 17N96W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 20N- 26N BETWEEN 86W-96W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 11N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM THIS LAST POINT TO 08N30W TO 08N39W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THE W SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH AT 08N43W TO 07N50W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 07N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 13W-31W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 32W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 93W S OF 25N WITH AN EMBEDDED LOW AT 20N93W. SEE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS SE RETURN FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER S TEXAS MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 17N96W WITH AXIS TOWARDS THE NE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE S GULF WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE N GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF 87W DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. FURTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 19N55W TO 10N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 51W-60W. THIS CONVECTION WILL ADVECT OVER TO THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...THE SW CARIBBEAN ...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...E NICARAGUA...AND E HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BESIDES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER S MEXICO...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 15N63W WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION MOSTLY E OF 70W. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN PENINSULA W OF 83W. ...HISPANIOLA... MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N60W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N328W TO 25N40W TO 23N55W TO 28N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 36N12W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. A LARGE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 23N BETWEEN 30W-60W SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE FURTHER E INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA