000 AXNT20 KNHC 061157 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI NOV 06 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 33W AND 37W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 06N40W...AND FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 40W AND 42W. THE 58W/59W ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS BEEN MOVED WESTWARD AND COMBINED/MERGED WITH THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH OF SIX HOURS AGO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE NOW IS ALONG 63W/64W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE AREA OF THE WAVE FROM 12N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 23N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE SAME AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 64W/65W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 48W AND 66W. A SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO-TO-WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24N90W...TO 20N88W IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N87W...TO 15N86W IN HONDURAS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N95W IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 82W AND 86W...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 26N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND 97W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 11N20W 09N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N22W TO 08N30W 08N38W 06N40W 06N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 13W AND 30W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO-TO-THE YUCATAN PENINSULA-TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A....AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 78W AND 86W. ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA BETWEEN FLORIDA AND MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...TO 28N97W ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO-TO-THE YUCATAN PENINSULA-TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 63W/64W NOW...AND ITS NEARBY PRECIPITATION. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW ARE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CURRENT CONDITIONS...IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. AN 82W RIDGE WILL MOVE TO 85W/86W DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 17N70W AND 14N63W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM HAITI TO 16N72W 15N68W 14N62W. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE CROSSING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD JUST ENOUGH IN ORDER TO ALLOW SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE ENTIRE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME UNTIL THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A FLORIDA-TO-CUBA-TO-JAMAICA RIDGE WILL PUSH NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 18 HOURS OF DAY ONE...OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY FOR 6 HOURS OR SO. THE WIND WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY FOR ALL OF DAY TWO. A FEW INVERTED TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO ALSO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH A RIDGE THAT WILL EXTEND FROM ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS TO JAMAICA. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE WESTWARD WITH TIME DURING DAY ONE. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AT 42 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND REMAIN ACROSS HISPANIOLA UNTIL THE END OF THE TWO DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 06/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.30 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 09N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW IS IN AN AREA OF ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM NORTHEASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W TO 12N80W TO 09N77W ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 23N BETWEEN 24W AND 78W. A COLD FRONT...THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 26N40W 24N51W 26N64W AND 32N72W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 39W AND 49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 32N25W 24N40W 22N54W 26N70W 32N74W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N62W THROUGH 32N56W TO 27N40W. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N15W TO 27N20W 24N32W AND 22N48W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT