000 AXNT20 KNHC 052356 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU NOV 05 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N34W TO 06N35W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE. SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING IS BETWEEN 33W AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 31W AND 37W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N57W TO 09N58W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE. 700 MB TROUGHING IS EVIDENT BETWEEN 56W AND 62W WITH AN 850 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM NEAR 13N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 61W...AND FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE S GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 25N89W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 18N86W TO 16N85W. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE. BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING IS BETWEEN 83W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 83W AND 89W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 24N BETWEEN 79W AND 94W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 09N14W TO 05N25W TO 05N37W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 05N53W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN ATLC TROPICAL WAVE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 09N BETWEEN 13W AND 29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALOFT...SUPPORTING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS REGARDING THE TROPICAL WAVE AND CONVECTION. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SE US TO THE NORTHERN GULF NEAR 28N90W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N98W. MAINLY MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS COVER THE GULF S OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WITH LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE SE GULF...INCLUDING THE FL STRAITS AND NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS. MODERATE SE WINDS ARE ALONG AND N OF THE RIDGE AXIS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE SW GULF AS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN MOVES NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTION WILL ALSO BECOME LIKELY LATE FRIDAY OVER THE NW GULF AS DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE WAVE GETS DRAWN NW AND INTERACTS WITH ASCENT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL RESIDE INLAND OVER TX. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. DEEP MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 74W AND 82W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC NEAR 22N63W TO 15N65W...INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE AREA IS INTERACTING WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 61W AND 66W. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM THE EAST AND IS PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS WAVE. ...HISPANIOLA... MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTS ISOLATED EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NW OF THE AREA IS DRIFTING S...WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARD HISPANIOLA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A VERY BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE N ATLC N OF 27N SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N34W TO 26N50W TO 31N70W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N31W TO 24N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE COLD FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FORM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO THE ATLC NEAR 22N63W. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 61W AND 69W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO