000 AXNT20 KNHC 051157 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU NOV 05 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W FROM 07N TO 15N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 28W AND 32W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N47W 14N49W 10N50W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W... AND FROM 07N TO 17N BETWEEN 45W AND 53W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W FROM 23N SOUTHWARD...INTO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRST PARAGRAPH IN THE SECTION ABOUT HISPANIOLA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE RELATED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 09N13W TO 07N20W 07N27W AND 06N36W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N36W TO 06N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 08W AND 12W...FROM 08N TO 09N BETWEEN 18W AND 19W...AND FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 03N TO 11N FROM 24N EASTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA...MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 80W AND 100W...INCLUDING IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. IT IS RELATED TO THE 15N90W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF 30N83W 24N90W 22N94W 18N95W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA FROM MEXICO ALONG 100W...INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.A...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 70W. MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 22N NORTHWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N88W 25N90W 23N92W. THE TROUGH REMAINS FROM THE WARM FRONT IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THE TROUGH IS WEAKENING. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. ...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 15N90W IN SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA...MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 80W AND 100W...INCLUDING IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W...FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W...BETWEEN 75W AND 77W IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W. IT APPEARS THAT A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS FORMED NEAR 17N85.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 81W AND 89W...IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND IN PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 13N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 13N63W. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR SURROUNDS THE CENTER FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 62W/63W FROM 14N TO 21N...IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 58W AND 66W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW ARE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CURRENT CONDITIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RIDGE WILL START ALONG 75W/76W...AND IT WILL MOVE WESTWARD TO 85W/86W BY THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW STILL IS FORECAST TO CROSS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A RIDGE WILL BE EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS TO HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE PRESENT BY THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HISPANIOLA WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 05/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.34 IN BERMUDA...AND 0.01 IN GUADELOUPE. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W. A COLD FRONT...THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 28N54W AND 32N70W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N40W 27N47W 26N56W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N34W 30N36W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 30N36W 26N43W 25N56W 30N70W 30N80W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 22N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N70W 25N75W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N14W TO 27N22W 23N33W AND 23N54W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT